The hottest financial market turbulence, rubber pr

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Financial market turbulence, rubber prices fell again and again

I. Market Review:

affected by the weakening of crude oil, the seasonal increase in rubber supply and the slowdown in downstream demand, due to the use of cement mortar with high strength, it is planned to complete the grouting of screw holes around the country by 2030. In September, the Shanghai Rubber index continued the decline in July and August. Although the Shanghai Jiao 809 contract in the middle and early ten days continued to hold high with the support of bulls, this did not really reflect the long-term trend of Tianjiao. Wang Xianhong recalled that the three monthly negative lines of the Shanghai Jiao long-term contract explained the supply and demand of Tianjiao more reasonably. The current ru901 contract has fallen to around 21000 yuan/ton

positions, since the first ten days of July, the positions of HuJiao have gradually decreased. At present, the total positions have returned to below 100000 hands, and the retreat of funds has also increased the probability of recent technical decline

Shanghai Rubber index and position trend chart. (source: Sino Swiss Finance)


in September, the futures of Tokyo industrial products exchange (TOCOM) closed lower again. As the rise of the dollar triggered the outflow of funds from commodity markets, including oil, bulk commodities suffered across the board selling pressure. However, as Thailand, the world's largest rubber producer, suffered continuous rainy weather, coupled with the decline in Japanese rubber inventories, the trend of Japanese rubber was relatively resistant to domestic decline. However, the Japanese glue has suffered selling pressure every time it rebounds recently, suggesting that the risk of futures price decline is greater

comparison chart of Shanghai Rubber and Japan rubber. (source: Zhongrui Finance)

Tianjiao in the international market, with the loss of the integer level of $3000, the recent key support level of $2800 has also been lost again and again, and where the next effective support will be, we still need to go step by step. The growth of natural rubber will turn negative this year, and the stagnation and contraction of consumption will make the trend of natural rubber difficult in the second half of the year

II. Analysis of fundamental factors:

(I) macroeconomic conditions

1. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged

the Federal Reserve (FED) announced on September 16 that it would keep interest rates unchanged. To the disappointment of Wall Street, the Fed did not imply that it would cut interest rates in the short term

although Fed officials continued to warn about inflation risks, they also pointed out that their worries about the economy had increased due to the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the sharp fall in the stock market

in the statement after the meeting, the Federal Reserve said: "the risks of economic downturn and inflation are both issues of great concern to the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC)."

members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously voted to maintain the benchmark federal funds rate at 2% for the third consecutive meeting. The Federal Reserve also kept the window discount rate unchanged at 2.25%

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