The investment bank said: the high oil price is by no means due to the imbalance between supply and demand
"the main reason for the current high oil price is not the imbalance between supply and demand. In the medium and long term, I am optimistic about the trend of oil price, but in the short term, there may be a big drop in oil price, because the technical side has been broken." A foreign investment banker told this newspaper
signs of oil price collapse
on July 8, as Iran agreed to launch a new round of negotiations with the European Union on its nuclear program, the tense situation in the Middle East temporarily eased, and the international crude oil futures price fell in anticipation of improved supply. As of press time, the crude oil futures price in August on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $140.69 per barrel, down 0.68% from $141.37 closed the previous day, and the crude oil price in Brent in London was $140.8 in August, down 0.75%
on the same day, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi proposed to sacrifice the "killing trick" of oil price: raise the margin requirements of the futures market to curb speculation in the oil market, because "we have many reasons to worry about the further rise of oil price"
will this become the inflection point of the rising crude oil price
a research director of a US funded investment bank told that the most direct sign of the oil price collapse is the decline in consumption, including the decline in oil consumption in the United States and China
"My one drop dispersion time is less than 1s. My friend told me that under the situation of rising oil prices, he has now summed up a lot of 'coping' strategies. For example, he will change the refueling at 11 p.m. now, because the refueling is calculated by volume, and the volume of the oil will expand under high temperature, so the volume difference between refueling at noon and refueling at night will be at least 5%. Second, when refueling, add a little more than half, because it is too much If there is too much oil, the load of the oil itself will lead to more fuel consumption. In addition, he used to drive to country parks with his family on weekends, but now it costs more than 700 yuan (Hong Kong dollars) to fill half a tank of oil, which is often cancelled. " The research director laughed that in the era of high oil prices, even high-income people have tried to find alternatives, which shows how high oil consumption is
similarly, a private equity fund industry person in Shenzhen said that he has also tried to reduce travel recently. "In the past, he used to drive back and forth, but now he drives to the company and usually stops at the company. If the traffic is poor after work, he takes a taxi, because the taxi contains subsidies!"
is there any other place for hot money
in the view of the aforementioned investment bankers, hot money can reasonably explain the current high oil price puzzle
"I can clearly feel that the oil price in this position is obviously unreasonable, which is not caused by supply and demand, but by a large amount of hot money. Hot money leads to the rise in the price of crude oil, agricultural products and other products. Similarly, under the effect of a large amount of hot money accumulation, the rise in price further strengthens the rise in price, and the result is that the price continues to rise, and when it rises to a point, the price of crude oil will collapse." The person said
he also cited a "profound" example of the serious deviation of prices from supply and demand: "I know a person who does agricultural products futures in the United States. What he said to me recently about the use of electronic tensile testing machine in metal, steel and aluminum foil materials surprised me. In the past, when he bought and sold agricultural products futures, he really went to the big farm in the United States to see the harvest, varieties and weather, but now he doesn't look at it at all, just depends on how the funds go. Don't look at the weather, because the relationship between weather and the rise and fall of agricultural products futures has changed After basically no, the force of capital is much greater than the fundamentals, and so is the relationship between oil. "
not long ago, CFTC conducted a series of investigations on whether crude oil prices were caused by speculation. Among them, Michael master, CEO of masters capital management, said in his testimony: there is no doubt that institutional investors are the main driver of the rise in food and energy prices
"even many large pension funds and sovereign funds have participated in the speculation of few oil prices for models below 10kN. The reason is that they have calculated that if an asset portfolio is not configured with any commodity futures, under the same conditions, the return on investment of the portfolio is much lower than that of configuring commodity futures, so now pension funds should be configured with 15% - 20% commodity futures." The above investment bankers said that because this part of the configuration is often not delivered, the result is that the price of the whole market can be pulled up out of the actual relationship between supply and demand
in his view, it is precisely because there are a large number of non deliverable oil in crude oil futures that supply and demand have been regardless of the price. Now it has become that capital speculation governs the futures price, and then uses the futures price to guide the spot price, which seems to be a possible chain of price increases
the main reason why the medium and long-term oil price cannot fall is that a large number of international hot money cannot find investment targets other than commodity futures. The research director said, "In the short term, we can't find a second product that can be as explosive as futures oil. Hot money will always be piled up in one place. Now there is no other place to pile up, and the stock market is no longer viable. If the oil price collapses, it's different from that when the Internet foam burst. After the Internet burst, hot money can go to emerging markets and real estate, but now these two pieces are gone, so commodity futures will still be the gathering place of hot money."
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