The hottest macroeconomic recovery drives the reco

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The macroeconomic recovery led to the recovery of paper demand

according to the statistics of today's investment analyst on the profit forecast data of more than 1800 analysts from more than 70 domestic brokerage research institutes, among the top 30 stocks whose comprehensive profit forecast (2009) was raised this week, the industry distribution was relatively concentrated, including 6 companies in the metal and mining industry, 4 companies in the chemical industry and 3 companies in the paper industry. In this issue, we choose the paper industry to comment

the prosperity of the paper industry was high in the first three quarters of 2008, while the industry prosperity index fell sharply from 124.5 to 99 in the fourth quarter, a record low. However, through the rebound in monthly output growth, changes in import and export data, the emergence of a turning point in profitability, the industry has basically turned losses into profits, and the inventory of high priced raw materials has been consumed, it can be concluded that the worst period of the industry has passed, and the prosperity of the industry is expected to gradually rise

macroeconomic recovery drives the demand for paper to rebound. Since April, the domestic macro-economy has shown signs of recovery. Paper products are widely distributed in various fields of consumption and manufacturing. The positive macroeconomic data indicates that the demand for paper products is coming out of the bottom. CICC expects the paper price to rebound by about 5% from the bottom in the fourth quarter, and is expected to rise by% year-on-year in 2010

the growth of production capacity slowed down, and the elimination of backward production capacity accelerated. In the first quarter of 2009, the fixed asset investment in the paper industry increased by 8% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell sharply by 16 percentage points year-on-year. In addition, the State Council announced the "light industry adjustment and revitalization plan", which mainly involves energy conservation and emission reduction, eliminating backward production capacity, accelerating the implementation of technological transformation, and promoting the integration of forestry and paper industry. Shanghai securities can automatically calculate the maximum experimental value, breaking value and other data of the tested materials. The coupon says that if the elimination of backward production capacity and the strict implementation of pollution control and emission reduction measures will help promote the industry to eliminate excess capacity, so as to improve industry supply and demand, alleviate the current pressure of oversupply, and help the industry out of the trough

recently, some paper products have been continuously set to complete price increases. After the tentative price increase of coated paper, coated white board and double offset paper in mid and late May received the initial response of some downstream users, the domestic mainstream manufacturers will work together to continue this process in June. The relevant price increase plan was sent to users at the end of last month, and the price increase range is 200 yuan/ton. The paper industry is initially gaining pricing power, which proves that the industry is in the process of recovery, and the main driving factors of price increase include: 1) the rise of pulp prices and environmental protection costs promote the rise of papermaking costs; 2) Supply and demand balance; 3) The dollar depreciated against the currencies of major plasma producing countries

with the industry boom gradually seeking high energy efficiency, high quality and high safety, the performance of the industry in the second quarter and the second half of the year is expected to continue to rebound. CITIC Securities proposes to choose the dominant paper types with limited capacity expansion and less demand impact from macroeconomic uncertainty, and then allocate the companies with relatively large proportion of the above dominant paper types, with emphasis on Bohui paper, Hexing packaging, Chenming Paper and sun paper

among the 30 stocks selected this week that should be clamped symmetrically with jaws as required, one stock has a predicted P/E ratio of less than 20 times in 2009, and 21 stocks are higher than 30 times. Judging from the safety diagnosis of investing in individual stocks today, the safety stars of 15 stocks are all three stars or above

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